This political earthquake will be The Big One

FROM time to time there are political earthquakes in United States politics, and this July 4 weekend we may be on the precipice of The Big One.

V.O.Key was the granddaddy of modern American political science and author of the theory of political realignments that shift the topography for decades, such as the dramatic elections of Republican Abraham Lincoln in 1860 and Democrat Franklin D.Roosevelt in 1932.

There are strong indications that the 2008 election will also be a realigning election, with the Democratic Party, led by Senator Barack Obama, capturing the White House and increasing its majorities in the House and Senate with sufficient tectonic force to consign the Republicans to the minority for some years to come.

While President George Bush hoped that winning the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004 represented a fundamental realignment to his party, whatever designs he had were torn asunder by repeated failures of competence reflected in the blunder in Iraq, the utter squandering of the President's political capital after his 2004 re-election and paralysis in response to Hurricane Katrina.

Some key factors in realigning elections are high voter interest and turnout, a desire for fundamental change, and profound differences between the parties on major issues.

The historic primary season of 2008 has included all these. This year, senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama attracted more than 35million votes in the primaries - more than double the 15.9million votes cast in the hotly contested 2004 Democratic primaries.

The Republican primary vote was 20million for all candidates this year, up sharply from the 7.9million when President Bush, unopposed, sought renomination in 2004.

The negative feeling towards President Bush, the economy in crisis, petrol prices out of control, inflation rising, house prices sinking, the sharemarket falling, the unpopular war, are all feeding a perfect storm of convulsion for Republicans.

The choices on issues from Iraq to health care to taxes and the economy are stark.

Some numbers from last week's Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reveal the geopolitical fault lines:

- 71percent of Americans say the country is on the wrong track

- 69percent say America is in a state of decline

- 73percent disapprove of Mr Bush's handling of the economy, and

- despite what is claimed as success for the surge (an increased number of US troops sent to Iraq in 2007) 64percent disapprove of his leadership on Iraq.

Republican presidential hopeful Senator John McCain has a +5 positive rating: 39percent positive to 34percent negative. Senator Obama is +15: 48percent positive to 33percent negative.

On the question of whether people will be voting for experience or change, proxies for senators McCain and Obama, respectively, it was 42percent for experience against 54percent for change.

As Senator Obama would say: "Change we can believe in."

Baby, a realigning election is on the cards.

Bruce Wolpe worked on Capitol Hill and has been involved in several Democratic political campaigns. He is the director, corporate affairs, for Fairfax Media, publisher of  The Sun-Herald. His blog is at
http://blogs.smh.com.au/whitehouse08/.